Orbán Is Losing Ground—And the Kremlin Is Moving In

Inside Hungary’s high-stakes election—and why it matters in the United States

As we know, the right-wing authoritarian movement operates like a global mafia—and one of its “mob bosses” is in trouble.

Who?

Viktor Orbán.

Orbán has become Vladimir Putin’s most valuable puppet inside the European Union.

Throughout the war in Ukraine, Orbán has repeatedly worked to slow or block European support for Kyiv.

After years of corruption scandals and authoritarian gaslighting, political frustration is mounting. Many Hungarians have had enough and are now pushing back in a serious way.

The country is now rallying behind Péter Magyar, who is drawing massive crowds and leading in several major polls by as much as 20%.

Now that Orbán is getting hammered in the polls, he appears to be turning to his “mob boss” in the Kremlin for support.

Investigative reporting from VSquare, citing European intelligence sources, indicates that a small team of GRU-linked political operatives recently arrived in Budapest to help influence the election in Orbán’s favor.

Unsurprisingly, the strategy Russia chose to pursue is to vilify President Zelenskyy and position him as a common enemy.

These are the same manipulation tactics Putin uses regularly, but as Hungary approaches its April 12 election, we will likely see new and more aggressive tactics emerge.

Why this matters: the strategies and election interference unfolding in Hungary will appear elsewhere—including in the United States later this year. In other words, if you want a preview of what may be coming, it’s worth paying close attention to Hungary.

Here’s how that strategy is already playing out:

• Russia reportedly bombed the Druzhba oil pipeline in Ukraine around January 27, which transports Russian oil to Hungary. While the exact circumstances remain unclear, the incident has now become the foundation of Orbán’s latest political messaging.

• Orbán has demanded that Ukraine repair the pipeline—an extraordinary request given that Hungary has already been offered alternative, non-Russian oil supplies. Instead, Orbán continues insisting on Russian oil, a position that ultimately helps Putin keep funding his nightly terrorist attacks against Ukraine.

• Zelenskyy pushed back on the pressure from Putin and Orbán, but he did offer a reasonable condition: Ukraine would repair the pipeline if Orbán could secure a temporary ceasefire in the area so crews could work without being targeted by Russian attacks—a logical request given the circumstances.

• Orbán was unable to secure such a ceasefire, and Russian strikes have continued in the region. As a result, the pipeline remains offline.

• Orbán has since framed the situation as if Zelenskyy is deliberately restricting the flow of oil to Hungary, portraying it as a threat to national security.

• Orbán is now spending millions on political advertising—using AI-generated imagery of Zelenskyy—aimed at further turning the Hungarian public against Ukraine. Some of this messaging is built around slogans like “we won’t be a Ukrainian colony,” framing Ukraine as a threat to Hungary’s sovereignty.

• On March 5, 2026, Orbán wrote: “There will be no deals, no compromise. We will break the Ukrainian oil blockade by force.” The following day, Hungarian authorities detained seven employees of Ukraine’s state-owned Oschadbank and seized a shipment containing roughly $40 million, €35 million, and 9 kilograms of gold that was being transported through Hungary.

It is now being reported that Orbán is still holding the seized assets as leverage in the dispute with Kyiv. But with Hungary heading toward a highly contested election, the situation raises broader questions about what could happen next.

Critics and opposition figures argue that if Orbán were to lose power, he could face criminal charges over years of corruption allegations and abuses of power. Some observers have even speculated that he could attempt to flee the country—similar to how former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych fled to Russia in 2014 with large sums of cash. That possibility raises broader questions about how the situation could unfold if Orbán were to lose the election.

It’s not entirely clear whether Putin believes Orbán still has a realistic chance of winning the election—or whether the Kremlin is simply taking advantage of Orbán’s weakening position to smear President Zelenskyy as much as possible while it still can.

Right now, the second scenario appears more likely—which would be significant.

If Orbán were to lose, it would be yet another setback for Putin and his violent authoritarian movement.

I’ll be posting regular updates on this topic in my notes so we can keep an eye on this together—because the Kremlin will be rolling out its newest propaganda and election interference tactics in the coming weeks.